Sunday, May 15, 2011

Gingrich might win the presidency

Newt Gingrich has announced that he is running for president and he might win it. I say this in the "stranger things have happened" sense: if he wants to run for president, this next year is his best chance to win. Here's why:
  • Obama, at least right now, seems unbeatable. Such things and seemings can change at the drop of a hat, but while it the seemings do truly so seem, they prevent others from entering the race.
  • Because Obama seems the candidate to beat, and because incumbent presidents have a strong history of winning reelection, other Republicans who are more electable will set their sites on 2016. If a Democrat wins that year, the best Republican options will set their sites on 2020. If a Republican wins that year, the 2020 spot will presumably be taken. Gingrich would have to wait until 2024 before he has as good a chance as he does now.
  • Gingrich might be the "Goldwater of 2012": the throw-your-vote-away candidate.
  • Who knows, if the economy continues to do poorly, or is seen as continuing to do poorly, Gingrich could pull an upset.
  • Gingrich's past and his character would be issues in any campaign, but he wouldn't be the first candidate to win with such questions about his character. (Of course, in his case, the character issues are largely verified: the Gennifer Flowers incident was largely denied and gainsaid whereas the specifics of what Gingrich did are much more stipulated to.)
I hope none of this is taken as an endorsement of Gingrich. It's just an observation.

3 comments:

James Hanley said...

"I hope none of this is taken as an endorsement of Gingrich"

Too late!

Pierre Corneille said...

Ack!!!

Fortunately, neither my "endorsement" nor my intrepid political analysis is probably not going to tip the balance in his favor.

Pierre Corneille said...

Ack again!!!

I didn't mean to put the double negative in there.